Mariners Make Correct Bet on King Felix - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Mariners Make Correct Bet on King Felix Stuck

Posted on February 8, 2013 at 12:28 PM.

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Let�s get it out of the way right now. A seven year commitment is risky. It is especially risky to make such a commitment to a starting pitcher. The industry has no clue how to keep pitchers healthy and why some pitchers can maintain and why others get hurt often. Even the most healthy pitcher in his 20�s can become an injury-prone 30-something pitcher. The risk is very real, especially when a team like the Seattle Mariners is going to commitment money in the neighborhood of $175 million to a starting pitcher who already has over 1,600 innings logged in eight seasons.

It is a risk. It is always a risk when committing any kind of money to a pitcher. Until Major League Baseball teams can find a way to maintain some semblance of health, money is always on the verge of being lost.

But, all of that really masks the significance of the Seattle Mariners� commitment to Felix Hernandez. All of that is background noise in the Mariners� wise decision to sign the best pitcher the franchise has ever had.

There will certainly be a litany of columns discussing the inherent risk involved in signing Felix Hernandez to a reported contract that will make him the highest paid pitcher in Major League history (for now). Again, that�s an easy column to right. Names such as Kevin Brown and Mike Hampton will surface over the next couple of days. The wasted money, how that high salary cost the team payroll flexibility, and how the pitcher never lived up to the contract will all be described in great detail. Of course, a name like Mike Mussina will never be mentioned because it pokes a hole in the theory and story of the risk of pitching contracts.

The Seattle Mariners did the absolute right thing by signing their ace to a seven year contract, which will give him raises in the final two years of his old deal and then five more seasons with an average annual value of $25 million. If the reports are accurate on the money, Hernandez has both the highest paid pitching contract and the highest annual value in Major League Baseball history. While that may not lost for long with pitchers such as Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw hitting the market soon, it seems quite right that Felix Hernandez would sit on top of the financial mountain.

For the Mariners, the reasons are plentiful for extending their ace and franchise player now. For the franchise, this is significant. This is a franchise that has seen Ken Griffey Jr. have to be traded away. Randy Johnson had to go. Alex Rodriguez did too. While Ichiro Suzuki stayed around, he was different as he was an international signing. There has been speculation for a number of years that the Mariners would deal Hernandez and that it might be beneficial to do so. Instead, the Mariners have locked up a franchise player for the first time in team history. It is significant for a franchise that is still somewhat searching for its identity. Felix Hernandez, his following in the King�s Court, and his dominance give them an identity.

The Mariners are also an organization that can afford such a contract. They will never be a $200 million payroll team, but they are a club that has supported a $100 million payroll in the past. And, they haven�t dipped below $85 million since 2001. They may not be considered a large market club, but they are certainly one that can spend money. Having Hernandez and his $25 million annual salary on the books won�t impede the club from investing in other players. That is especially true considering the number of prospects who are nearly ready to contribute at the Major League level. With a young organization with some high end prospects, payroll should not be an issue. Adding a free agent should not be an issue, at least financially.

But, this makes the most sense because Felix Hernandez committed to the Mariners. Obviously, he didn�t give them a discount. He is getting a contract that looks like the one he would�ve gotten on the open market. One of the handful of legitimately great pitchers deserves one of the handful of highest paid contracts in the sport. The Mariners benefit because Hernandez is actually choosing to stay. One of the current game�s best, chose to stay with a team that has stunted his win total every season with a poor offense, has had just two winning seasons in his eight years, and who has never surrounded him with a quality team. Hernandez committing to the Mariners at market value is a discount for them. Over the eight seasons, he has deserved much better.

Consider that an average Felix Hernandez season looks like this:

30 starts, 203 innings, 186 hits, 60 walks, 186 strikeouts, 3.22 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, 127 ERA+, 3.30 FIP. His average record: 12 wins, 10 losses. He has deserved better.

But, here comes the best reason for this extension. Felix Hernandez, who will be entering his ninth Major League season, will be entering his age 27 season. One of the most dominant pitchers in the sport over the past four seasons hasn�t even been in his prime. It may seem like Hernandez has been around forever, but that�s because he began his Major League career at 19-years-old. And, there are signs that he is improving.

From ages 19 through 22, Hernandez averaged about 30 starts and a 3.96 ERA. He averaged 194 innings pitched while allowing rates of 9.3 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 8.0 K/9. There was gradual improvement each year as the young right hander transitioned from promising rookie to above average pitcher.

Since turning 23, Hernandez has posted a 2.82 ERA while averaging 34 starts and 238 innings per season. He posted rates of 7.7 H/9, 2.5 BB/9, 8.4 K/9 and an ERA+ of 139. Since 2009, Hernandez has posted WAR values of 6.8, 6, 5.2, and 6.1 in each respective season. And, he is just now at the beginning of his prime seasons.

Of course, there are always concerns with pitchers. Hernandez has been so consistent and so durable throughout his career. Last season, there was a worry about his velocity. While it is true that his velocity has decreased one mile per hour in each of the last two seasons, that may not tell the whole story. He did average 92.4 MPH with his fastball this season. But, he has averaged 94 MPH over his career, which isn�t all that much of a difference. And, even with the dip in velocity, batters still made less contact in 2012 than they did in each of the past two seasons. He is still eliciting swings and misses in line with his career rate. Does a dip in velocity indicate a problem? Maybe, but his performance has not been impacted at all.

In the past four seasons--between the ages of 23 and 26--Felix Hernandez has won a Cy Young Award and probably deserved another two. He has thrown a perfect game and has made three All-Star games. His 2.81 ERA in that span is second best among Major League starters. His 3.03 FIP is eighth best while his 954 innings are the most thrown by a starter in that time span, just edging out Justin Verlander. His 24.2 accumulated WAR value is fourth best among starting pitchers, training just Verlander, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay. And, he is three years younger than Verlander, six years younger than Lee, and nine years younger than Halladay.

Despite the classic risks that go along with a long term deal with a starting pitcher, the Mariners made the right call, the only call. Felix Hernandez is not only the face of their franchise, but he is one of three most dominant starting pitchers in the sport today. He has been for four years and he is at the beginning stages of his prime. That risk the Mariners take is minimized by the fact that the next seven years cover all of his prime and maybe a year or so of decline. He will be just 34-years-old when this deal is completed. In terms of odds, the Mariners take less of a risk considering Hernandez�s age, his prime seasons coming, and the fact that he has been injury free for his eight year career.

The pressure now shifts to the Mariners� organization. They have locked up a difference making, legitimate ace in Hernandez. Now, they have to surround him with talent. They have to build a contender around what looks to be a historically excellent starting pitcher. Hernandez hasn�t sniffed the playoffs since arriving in Seattle. The young talent that the Mariners drafted is now starting to filter through. Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, Danny Hultzen, and Brandon Maurer will get looks in camp, but are all expected to begin the season in the Minor Leagues. Dustin Ackley, Kyle Seager, and Jesus Montero hope to form a young offensive core around veterans Kendrys Morales, Michael Morse, and Raul Ibanez.

But, the Mariners still have more to do. They play in the one of the toughest divisions in the baseball with the Rangers, Angels, and A�s all heading into the season as contenders as well as being long term threats. The Astros will provide the Mariners some cushion, but Jack Zduriencik has to build a contender while Hernandez is in his prime. If Zduriencik doesn�t, it will be a waste of Hernandez�s prime years, talent, and potential of playoff dominance. In a short playoff series, Hernandez could dominate and bring a whole new layer to his career. The Mariners have made the right move in committing to Hernandez for the next seven years. They paid market value for one of the few truly elite pitchers. Now, they have to put a contending team around him.

Sound off OS: Do you think the Mariners made the wise move in signing Felix Hernandez to a seven year, $175 million contract?

Gary Armida is a staff writer for Operation Sports. He also writes baseball at fullcountpitch.com. Join the conversation on twitter @garyarmida

Comments

# 1 ghm125 @ Feb 8

great read! my prob is the money to a guy who plays every 5 days....we will see wish all best to that organization!again good job!

# 2 Gary Armida @ Feb 8

Thank you. That's very kind. Thanks for taking the time to read.

# 3 Gary Armida @ Feb 10

It's being reported that the Mariners have found something in Hernandez's shoulder during the physical which is why he won't be pitching in the WBC. If true, this is something that makes you pause, if you are the Mariners, with this deal. Best guess--as long as it's nothing major, they change the language of the contract like the Yankees did with CC Sabathia on his last deal. That would protect their investment in case Hernandez does break down.